Sunday, August 3, 2008

Market Update 8/3/08

The boys over at finally got their upswing last week. And, just as they said, what would have been a mild up-tick turned into a spike, thanks to short sellers hedging their bets. Of coarse, the DJIA still finished down for the week, as did the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ was flat. They're calling this the start of the "summer rally". I call it "some, 'er...rally". Whatever it is, it's projected to last through mid-October.

Meanwhile, over at the S&P they seem to be aware of the fact that spikes in a down trend are a classic sign of a bear market. They also seem to be aware that oil prices, like the leaves on the trees, fall in autumn. They project the oil price to stabilize between $75-$100/barrel. They are also forecasting continued recession until a trough is reached in March of 2009. There is no forecast for the upside of the trough.

I am becoming increasingly disillusioned with all the cheer leading at marketedge, compared to the more sober analysis of the S&P economists. The computer models at marketedge, although more or less accurate, seem more tuned to the quick buck investor. The quick buck style, always a bit dangerous, can be disastrous in this kind of environment.

Local So-and-so's First Rule of Investing:

Never buy in to a falling market.

I have such a paltry sum invested at the moment, that it seems better to save what I can and await better days. I'm sitting out the some 'er rally.

No comments: