One of the signs of the ageing process is that you stop paying attention to modern culture. You don’t know where the hangouts are anymore. For me, this happened about 20 years ago, before I moved to Reno. The announcement for the Blogger Dinner just said it would be at the Imperial Bar. No street address was given. Six months ago, I would have just looked in the phone book, but not now. Oh no. I’m a new/social media kind of guy now. I’m up to date. I’m connected.
So, I googled Imperial Bar Reno, and the first one on the list said it was on 4th Street…4th Street? That seemed like an odd place to have a dinner, even by blogger standards. So, I checked the website. I thought it said they serve tall cans there. That’s got to be it. This was going to be an interesting evening.
So, there I was, your friendly neighborhood, mild-mannered Republican, cruising up and down Reno’s notorious Red Light District. I think we can all be thankful that Jerry Falwell did not live to see this day come to pass. One good thing to come out of the experience though, was that I now fully realize just how dark 4th Street is after the sun goes down. It’s very dark. It’s Vincent Price Movie dark. It could definitely use a few more lampposts, like say, one every 4 or 5 blocks, just to get the process started.
A little game I like to play whenever I’m looking for a place I’ve never been before is to count the number of u-turns I have to make before parking the car. Five or less is considered good; two or less is excellent. I stop counting at six. I can say with absolute authority though, that I managed to turn the wrong way on a one-way street only once all evening. There was no traffic, and no cops around, so it doesn’t count. No harm, no foul is the general rule there.
Hopefully there will be another dinner next month. Maybe that announcement will contain a street address as well, like 150 N. Arlington for instance. Or, I could just revert to my old fashioned ways and look in the phone book.
Friday, January 23, 2009
What Dollar Devaluation Looks Like
This morning brings another eye-popping chart from Shadow Stats.
This chart is designed to track M3 (total wealth), since the government stopped in 2006. This time it's the M1 money supply (circulating currency) that concerns me the most. When the government sets the prime rate at 0%, literally giving money away, this is the inevitable result. The gap between circulating currency and wealth is the amount of devaluation.
The dollar is best defined as a storehouse of wealth. When it is given away for free, then what is it really worth? Our soon to be Treasury Secretary is likely to follow the pattern. Since he "forgot" to pay his taxes (cue laugh track), and having blown a perfect opportunity to head off the bank crisis as Chairman of the New York Reserve Bank, there is little hope that he will change anything. By re-inflating the false-wealth bubble, the government is proving Lincoln's adage that some of the people can be fooled all of the time.
And before I'm done; A hearty thanks to Senator Ensign, from those of us about to lose what little wealth we have left, for rolling over and playing dead in the Senate confirmation hearings yesterday; way to go along to get along. It's enough to make me wonder if the good Senator has a hoard of silver ingots stashed under the floorboards of his mansion.
This chart is designed to track M3 (total wealth), since the government stopped in 2006. This time it's the M1 money supply (circulating currency) that concerns me the most. When the government sets the prime rate at 0%, literally giving money away, this is the inevitable result. The gap between circulating currency and wealth is the amount of devaluation.
The dollar is best defined as a storehouse of wealth. When it is given away for free, then what is it really worth? Our soon to be Treasury Secretary is likely to follow the pattern. Since he "forgot" to pay his taxes (cue laugh track), and having blown a perfect opportunity to head off the bank crisis as Chairman of the New York Reserve Bank, there is little hope that he will change anything. By re-inflating the false-wealth bubble, the government is proving Lincoln's adage that some of the people can be fooled all of the time.
And before I'm done; A hearty thanks to Senator Ensign, from those of us about to lose what little wealth we have left, for rolling over and playing dead in the Senate confirmation hearings yesterday; way to go along to get along. It's enough to make me wonder if the good Senator has a hoard of silver ingots stashed under the floorboards of his mansion.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Burning Carbon to Reduce Carbon Burning
The Drudge Report links to a Times On-Line article this morning, about the British government's new super computer. They will be using the computer to predict weather patterns, monitor global warming, and help reduce CO2 emissions. The real problem, of course, is that Britain produces most of it's electrical power from fossil fuels. The super-computer will...
Meanwhile, Dennis, commenting from Abiline, Los Estados Unidos says...
A factor of 5 would reduce the carbon footprint down to 2,880 tonnes of CO2/year, or the equivalent of 480 homes in Britain. Even better, if the British would build a nuclear power plant near the computer, the carbon emissions would be close to zero. They could measure global warming and support 2,400 plus homes relatively carbon free. Environmentalism would do much better if the experts would drop their ideological purity, and think outside the box at least once in a while.
"...emit 14,400 tonnes of CO2 a year,” said Dave Britton, the Met Office’s chief press officer. This is equivalent to the CO2 emitted by 2,400 homes – generating an average of six tonnes each year.
Meanwhile, Dennis, commenting from Abiline, Los Estados Unidos says...
Simple solution: move the computer to France where 80% of electrical energy comes from nuclear power plants as compared to fossil fuel. This will reduce the carbon footprint of the computer by a factor of 5.
A factor of 5 would reduce the carbon footprint down to 2,880 tonnes of CO2/year, or the equivalent of 480 homes in Britain. Even better, if the British would build a nuclear power plant near the computer, the carbon emissions would be close to zero. They could measure global warming and support 2,400 plus homes relatively carbon free. Environmentalism would do much better if the experts would drop their ideological purity, and think outside the box at least once in a while.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
A Republican's Hope
There has been much written lately in the press and in the blogosphere about Herbert Hoover and FDR. Many comparisons are being made between then and now. It is mostly meaningless ideological point scoring. A few facts are in order, such as the federal deficit under Hoover rose every year he was in office. If you’re a Democrat looking for a do-nothing Republican president, Calvin Coolidge is a much better choice. However by doing nothing, he sat and watched his country rise up from a post war recession into one of the greatest periods of growth then seen, so keep an open mind.
Here’s another fact: FDR campaigned on a “balance the budget” platform in 1932. It wasn't until after he was elected (and before the inauguration) that he set about creating programs on a massive scale. The bank collapse of late’32 and early ’33 was a phenomenon that neither he nor Hoover had anything to do with. And just for the record: when Social Security was instituted, and the retirement age was set at 65, the average life span of an American man was 63. It was medical science operating in a free market that transformed what was meant to be a cash cow for the Treasury into a constantly bankrupt retirement plan.
There are some interesting coincidences between then and now, but the simple fact is we are in uncharted territory. We are in the wilderness, with no Indian guides, no footpaths and no rivers to follow. The only real similarity is that the experts, both then and now, don’t have any answers. Vox Day sums it up with a quick look at the 4 major economic schools, and their inability to solve the current dilemma:
The downturn in the stock market wasn’t just people losing money; it was people getting the hell out. It is said that there is $13 trillion in private capital parked offshore in Caribbean banks. God only knows how much is in Switzerland, or a thousand other places. Americans have plenty of money. What we don’t have is trust in the rules of the game, or the fairness of the referees. Restore the trust, and the players will return.
My hope for the next few years is that the rulebook will be rewritten, not just added to. I hope those in positions of responsibility will act responsibly, and for the good of their country. When the new rules come up for consideration, the rulers will need to write them with the good of the ruled in mind. For that to happen, they will need to trust us- the marketplace, we the people. Even Silent Cal could get behind that.
Here’s another fact: FDR campaigned on a “balance the budget” platform in 1932. It wasn't until after he was elected (and before the inauguration) that he set about creating programs on a massive scale. The bank collapse of late’32 and early ’33 was a phenomenon that neither he nor Hoover had anything to do with. And just for the record: when Social Security was instituted, and the retirement age was set at 65, the average life span of an American man was 63. It was medical science operating in a free market that transformed what was meant to be a cash cow for the Treasury into a constantly bankrupt retirement plan.
There are some interesting coincidences between then and now, but the simple fact is we are in uncharted territory. We are in the wilderness, with no Indian guides, no footpaths and no rivers to follow. The only real similarity is that the experts, both then and now, don’t have any answers. Vox Day sums it up with a quick look at the 4 major economic schools, and their inability to solve the current dilemma:
The Marxian model breathed its last breath in the early 1990s. While the Keynesian model is seeing a revival in the misguided enthusiasm for public works spending in the United States and United Kingdom, a second transmutation of a severe recession into a great depression should kill it off for good. The Monetarist model is already on its last legs; the failure of the Fed to inflate its way out of the current crisis should suffice to finish it off. Even the Austrian theory, without question the most useful of the four economic schools, is poorly suited to account for the problems presented by exogenous factors.
The downturn in the stock market wasn’t just people losing money; it was people getting the hell out. It is said that there is $13 trillion in private capital parked offshore in Caribbean banks. God only knows how much is in Switzerland, or a thousand other places. Americans have plenty of money. What we don’t have is trust in the rules of the game, or the fairness of the referees. Restore the trust, and the players will return.
My hope for the next few years is that the rulebook will be rewritten, not just added to. I hope those in positions of responsibility will act responsibly, and for the good of their country. When the new rules come up for consideration, the rulers will need to write them with the good of the ruled in mind. For that to happen, they will need to trust us- the marketplace, we the people. Even Silent Cal could get behind that.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
My Carbon Footprint
When it comes to the global warming debate, call me skeptical. Not making a huge mess is always a good idea, but environmentalism is more political than scientific. One thing that bugs me as much as anything is that tight-fisted, miserly Republicans, like me, don't get nearly the credit we deserve. The thermostat on my water heater is as low as it will go. I turn off lights, shut down the furnace, walk to the bank and grocery store, I've never been to Kyoto, and on and on, just to save a few cents.
Wandering around the internet this morning, I found a Harvard physicist who has calculated the carbon footprint of a Google search (7 grams of CO2). This led to the Carbon Footprint Calculator. I see several problems with the calculator, which I'll get to, but apparently I generate 15.41 tonnes of CO2 a year. The American average is 20.4, which means, among other things, I can Lord it over, and act superior, towards roughly 75 % of my fellow Americans. The bad news is that we're all supposed to get down to 2 tonnes per year worldwide in order to save the planet. According to the calculator, I would have to live outside, stop driving, as well as stop eating.
Living in my little hole-in-the-wall apartment generates 3.9 tonnes of CO2 a year. This must have more to do with where I live than how I live. The overwhelming majority of electrical generation in Nevada comes from burning coal, and not the "clean" kind either. Driving my car 10,000 miles a year generates 4.27 tonnes of CO2.
I took an airplane to Las Vegas 2 years ago that produced 0.28 tonnes of CO2. But here is where I became suspicious. Had I flown 1st Class instead of economy, I would have produced 0.42 tonnes. Does sitting up in front make a difference? It's the same airplane, right? Are 1st Class passengers a bunch of tubbies or something?
It was the section called "secondary" that really gave it away. It's heavily wieghted to vegan's who grow their own vegetables. There's also a thing about not buying packaged products of any kind. OK, a lot of things have too much packaging. But, how would one go about selling crackers without putting them in a box? How about toothpaste; are we going to have to scoop it out of a bin and deposit it in our canvas bags?
There is a lot we humans do that just has to be the way it is. Add to that, we each do the same things in different ways. I don't see a computer program that could possibly figure in all the human idiosyncracies, much less predict the weather.
Wandering around the internet this morning, I found a Harvard physicist who has calculated the carbon footprint of a Google search (7 grams of CO2). This led to the Carbon Footprint Calculator. I see several problems with the calculator, which I'll get to, but apparently I generate 15.41 tonnes of CO2 a year. The American average is 20.4, which means, among other things, I can Lord it over, and act superior, towards roughly 75 % of my fellow Americans. The bad news is that we're all supposed to get down to 2 tonnes per year worldwide in order to save the planet. According to the calculator, I would have to live outside, stop driving, as well as stop eating.
Living in my little hole-in-the-wall apartment generates 3.9 tonnes of CO2 a year. This must have more to do with where I live than how I live. The overwhelming majority of electrical generation in Nevada comes from burning coal, and not the "clean" kind either. Driving my car 10,000 miles a year generates 4.27 tonnes of CO2.
I took an airplane to Las Vegas 2 years ago that produced 0.28 tonnes of CO2. But here is where I became suspicious. Had I flown 1st Class instead of economy, I would have produced 0.42 tonnes. Does sitting up in front make a difference? It's the same airplane, right? Are 1st Class passengers a bunch of tubbies or something?
It was the section called "secondary" that really gave it away. It's heavily wieghted to vegan's who grow their own vegetables. There's also a thing about not buying packaged products of any kind. OK, a lot of things have too much packaging. But, how would one go about selling crackers without putting them in a box? How about toothpaste; are we going to have to scoop it out of a bin and deposit it in our canvas bags?
There is a lot we humans do that just has to be the way it is. Add to that, we each do the same things in different ways. I don't see a computer program that could possibly figure in all the human idiosyncracies, much less predict the weather.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
The Ultimate Internet Dating Trainwreck
This is the story of an incredibly dumb young lady who matches up with an equally oafish young man on an internet dating site with predictable results. And then, she ADVERTISES IT!?! A 200 plus comment thread so horrifyingly funny that, as appalling as it is, I couldn't turn away.
Thanks to Vox Day.
Thanks to Vox Day.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Social Media Social
I've been debating whether or not to attend the Inaugural Semi-Bi-Monthly Reno Blogger Dinner. I made lists of why I should go and why I shouldn't go. The only reason I shouldn't is that I'll probably be the oldest guy there, and old guys are inherently creepy. But, there are several good reasons to go. The top 9 reasons why I RSVP'd for the Semi-Bi-Monthly Reno Bogger Dinner are...
9)It forces me to put on my pants and go outside.
8)I haven't had a decent meal in a month.
7)Barring a decent meal, at least I can eat something other than the usual crap.
6)I might get a clue as to why Twitter is such a big f*kin deal.
5)Since Mr. Jerz isn't going, I can get in on the latest dirt when they talk smack about him.
4)I'll find out if the Tall Can TV crew really does drink that mislabeled port-a-potty water.
3)If anyone from the Nevada New Media shows up, there could be a really righteous food fight.
2)Mixing with young people keeps the mind active, and besides, they might think I'm "one cool dude".
...and the number one reason to go to the Semi-Bi-Monthly Reno Blogger Dinner is...
1)Ah hell, why not?
I hope to see you there.
9)It forces me to put on my pants and go outside.
8)I haven't had a decent meal in a month.
7)Barring a decent meal, at least I can eat something other than the usual crap.
6)I might get a clue as to why Twitter is such a big f*kin deal.
5)Since Mr. Jerz isn't going, I can get in on the latest dirt when they talk smack about him.
4)I'll find out if the Tall Can TV crew really does drink that mislabeled port-a-potty water.
3)If anyone from the Nevada New Media shows up, there could be a really righteous food fight.
2)Mixing with young people keeps the mind active, and besides, they might think I'm "one cool dude".
...and the number one reason to go to the Semi-Bi-Monthly Reno Blogger Dinner is...
1)Ah hell, why not?
I hope to see you there.
E!! Is Back
E!! The True Conservative Story is back, and with a vengeance. I'm glad she's on our side. It's a good illustration of the problems "spreading the wealth" creates.
Progressives would do well to remember that Robin Hood was a thief. The Sherrif of Nottingham, for all his mean-spiritedness, was essentially righ to throw him in jail.
Progressives would do well to remember that Robin Hood was a thief. The Sherrif of Nottingham, for all his mean-spiritedness, was essentially righ to throw him in jail.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Finally Some Good News
I've been meaning to write about a book I read over the summer called Ahead of the Curve by Joseph H Ellis. It's by far the best book on the economy and the business cycle that I've ever read. Mr. Ellis was a retail analyst at Goldman Sachs for 30 years. In his book, he uses charts that measure different parts of the economy that go back to 1960. They track year-over-year percentage differences. Everything is measured the same way over the same time period, and measured against each other, so you can see how one part of the economy affects the other.
The book was written in 2004, but the really nice thing about that is the charts are constantly updated here. According to Mr. Ellis, the first sign of a recovery after a recession is an upturn in real wages, followed by consumer spending. Real wages are defined as the buying power of the dollar. With falling commodity prices it makes sense that real wages would be rising. Rising unemployment is a trailing indicator and therefor meaningless as an indication of recovery. The real wages versus consumer spending chart is here. Notice the green line at the extreme right of the chart.
We're still at least 2 months away to know if this really means anything. Real wages need to keep rising in order for consumer spending to turn. But, it's the first good sign I've seen in a very long time.
The book was written in 2004, but the really nice thing about that is the charts are constantly updated here. According to Mr. Ellis, the first sign of a recovery after a recession is an upturn in real wages, followed by consumer spending. Real wages are defined as the buying power of the dollar. With falling commodity prices it makes sense that real wages would be rising. Rising unemployment is a trailing indicator and therefor meaningless as an indication of recovery. The real wages versus consumer spending chart is here. Notice the green line at the extreme right of the chart.
We're still at least 2 months away to know if this really means anything. Real wages need to keep rising in order for consumer spending to turn. But, it's the first good sign I've seen in a very long time.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Weird Weapon
Does anybody know what kind of weapon this is? I though it might be a cluster bomb, but it looks like something new. Did we sell this to the Israelis, or did they think of this themselves?
It's no cluster bomb.
Photos courtesy The Drudge Report.
It's no cluster bomb.
Photos courtesy The Drudge Report.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
The Revolt Begins
As predicted, the rank and file revolt we had in Nevada last spring was not an isolated incident. The Hill reports:
Unlike conditions in Nevada, the leadership appears to agree the revolt is legal under the rules...
A host of candidates are in on it...
So, dust off the flintlocks and assemble in the town square, it's time for the tree of liberty to be watered with the blood of patriots.
For the first time in party history, members of the Republican National Committee have called their own unscheduled meeting without the aid of the Washington-based party apparatus.
Unlike conditions in Nevada, the leadership appears to agree the revolt is legal under the rules...
The unscheduled and unexpected meeting, plans for which were first reported by The Hill, was called by Emineth ( North Dakota ) and 21 other RNC members from 18 states, according to a memo from the RNC counsel’s office. Party rules stipulate a meeting must be called by at least 16 members from 16 different states.
A spokesman for ( the incumbent) Duncan would only say that the chairman supports members’ rights to hold such a meeting.
A host of candidates are in on it...
Those who signed the letter requesting the special meeting are either undecided voters or are backing other candidates. Several are public supporters of former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell or of South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson. Dawson himself is among the signees.
Others are privately supporting their own candidates. Most notably, several private supporters of former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele were enthusiastic backers of the special meeting, and many signed on to make it happen.
So, dust off the flintlocks and assemble in the town square, it's time for the tree of liberty to be watered with the blood of patriots.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Poetry and Reason
Between the Democratic sweep in November, the continuing politics/religion debate, and the Christmas season, there are some disturbing developments. The kick-off for the current round seems to have been the passage of prop. 8 in California. In spite of that state's overwhelming Democratic majority, and gay people being mostly a Democratic constituency, the right, or privilege, to marry still lost. And yet, rather than have an inter-party debate as to why that happened, Democrats prefer to blame it on the Christian Right; specifically, the Mormons. The atheistic scientific rationalists are joining in the chorus now as well.
There is a trail of logic that leads to the idea of a created universe, whether the scientific rationalists want to admit it or not. Science can answer many things, but it is not equipped to answer everything. The scientific method, by definition, is limited. Beauty, love, romance...
I once saw a documentary about a group of scientists who were trying to figure out why songbirds sing. They found that it was neither territorial nor mating calls. There was no rational explanation for it. They concluded that song birds sing because they apparently enjoy singing. I don't know if that's really the case, but I do know that when scientists can't find a rational answer, they guess, just like the rest of us.
I choose to believe that Thomas Hardy summed it up best with The Darkling Thrush...
When atheistic Darwinian logic can explain poets, birds, and why I gain pleasure from both, I may rethink my spiritual sentiments. Until then, the universe just isn't rational.
There is a trail of logic that leads to the idea of a created universe, whether the scientific rationalists want to admit it or not. Science can answer many things, but it is not equipped to answer everything. The scientific method, by definition, is limited. Beauty, love, romance...
Dear Sweetheart,
The chemical reactions and electrical impulses within my skull are causing me to ask you to be my Valentine.
Your collection of atoms,
Ron
I once saw a documentary about a group of scientists who were trying to figure out why songbirds sing. They found that it was neither territorial nor mating calls. There was no rational explanation for it. They concluded that song birds sing because they apparently enjoy singing. I don't know if that's really the case, but I do know that when scientists can't find a rational answer, they guess, just like the rest of us.
I choose to believe that Thomas Hardy summed it up best with The Darkling Thrush...
At once a voice arose among
The bleak twigs overhead
In a full-hearted evensong
Of joy illimited;
An aged thrush, frail, gaunt, and small
In blast-beruffled plume,
Had chosen thus to fling his soul
Upon the growing gloom.
So little cause for carolings
Of such ecstatic sound
Was written on terrestrial things
Afar or nigh around,
That I could think there trembled through
His happy good-night air
Some blessed Hope, whereof he knew
And I was unaware.
When atheistic Darwinian logic can explain poets, birds, and why I gain pleasure from both, I may rethink my spiritual sentiments. Until then, the universe just isn't rational.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Mob Museum Stimulus
Thanks to the Drudge Report, KNXT Radio is reporting that Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman will be meeting with Senator Harry "Pinky" Reid soon to discuss local development projects to be included in the upcoming stimulus package. Among the projects is a "Mob Museum".
So, when Mom and Dad are in the casino throwing away their children's inheritance, little Jr. will be learning all about the exciting life of Murder Inc., and the lucrative profession of extortion. Who knows, with such an education maybe he'll grow up to be a New York City banker, or even a Nevada senator.
I thought we were going to be repairing bridges and making Pinky's office bio-degradable with that money. If we're just going to waste it on stupid idea's I have one too. For a million bucks I'll be glad to set up the prostitution exhibit. I could even make it interactive if you'd like. C'mon Senator, we were both 13 year old boys once. Remember?
So, when Mom and Dad are in the casino throwing away their children's inheritance, little Jr. will be learning all about the exciting life of Murder Inc., and the lucrative profession of extortion. Who knows, with such an education maybe he'll grow up to be a New York City banker, or even a Nevada senator.
I thought we were going to be repairing bridges and making Pinky's office bio-degradable with that money. If we're just going to waste it on stupid idea's I have one too. For a million bucks I'll be glad to set up the prostitution exhibit. I could even make it interactive if you'd like. C'mon Senator, we were both 13 year old boys once. Remember?
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Merry Christmas
8 And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.
9 And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them; and they were sore afraid.
10 And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.
11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Princess Arianna Joins the 20th Century
I nearly fell out of my chair laughing this morning when I read this. I'm not usually one to read the Huffington post, I get enough aggravation, but it showed up in Real Clear Politics. It seems Arianna Huffington is aghast at all this "laissez-faire capitalism" we yanks have been practising all these years.
There is so much wrong with this sentence, one hardly knows where to begin. Let's start with the accepted history of our country that laissez-faire went out with the railroad barons. At least that's what I was taught in 5th grade. There is an excellent argument that we never had true laissez-faire. Personally, I think the only Americans to ever practice it were the native tribes. If you would like to hear about the relative merits of freedom versus government bureaucracy, ask any Native American how he feels about the Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Next we could examine the idea that one election means the end of something. As if Dwight Eisenhower's victory in 1952 spelled the end of social security; or Calvin Coolidge's election repealed the income tax. I guess everybody who voted for the other guy is going to disappear? Sorry Arianna, most of us don't qualify for the rapture either.
Not to sum up her ignorance in a single sentence, she continues:
Well, as long as she's pronouncing that Frankensteen, I won't be offended. For God's sake Arianna, read a book sometime will you? Frankenstein only dies in the movies. In the meantime, fire up the Jacob's ladder, Igor. We've got work to do.
But while laissez-faire capitalism has been a monumental failure in practice, and soundly defeated at the polls, the ideology is still alive and kicking.
There is so much wrong with this sentence, one hardly knows where to begin. Let's start with the accepted history of our country that laissez-faire went out with the railroad barons. At least that's what I was taught in 5th grade. There is an excellent argument that we never had true laissez-faire. Personally, I think the only Americans to ever practice it were the native tribes. If you would like to hear about the relative merits of freedom versus government bureaucracy, ask any Native American how he feels about the Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Next we could examine the idea that one election means the end of something. As if Dwight Eisenhower's victory in 1952 spelled the end of social security; or Calvin Coolidge's election repealed the income tax. I guess everybody who voted for the other guy is going to disappear? Sorry Arianna, most of us don't qualify for the rapture either.
Not to sum up her ignorance in a single sentence, she continues:
It's time to drive the final nail into the coffin of laissez-faire capitalism by treating it like the discredited ideology it inarguably is. If not, the Dr. Frankensteins of the right will surely try to revive the monster and send it marauding through our economy once again.
Well, as long as she's pronouncing that Frankensteen, I won't be offended. For God's sake Arianna, read a book sometime will you? Frankenstein only dies in the movies. In the meantime, fire up the Jacob's ladder, Igor. We've got work to do.
The Trader
Any Edgar Allen Poe fans out there? Thanks to The Big Picture and Macro-Man.
Late one morning one December in a year we’ll all remember,
Writing Christmas poems had turned into quite a chore,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of someone gently rapping, rapping at my office door.
“Tis some visitor,” I muttered, “tapping at my office door-
Only this, and nothing more.”
Open wide I flung the entry, stood there like an ancient sentry,
In there stepped a haggard trader who’d been up since half past four.
Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he;
But, with mien of lord or lady, walked in from the trading floor-
Stood next to a bust of Soros on a shelf well past the door-
Stood, and sighed, and nothing more.
Then this battered soul beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance he wore,
“Though thy P/L has cratered, you’ll get better soon or later,
Ghastly grim and somber trader wandering from the trading floor-
Tell me what thy problem is found upon the trading floor!”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
As he stood there slightly smirking, doubts I’d long felt vaguely lurking
My subconscience let emerge and push their way out to the fore.
“Though our P/L’s been stinking and our share price swiftly sinking
Surely I’m right to be thinking that the worst is in Q4?
When will we return to normal, back the way it was before?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
“Come now, fellow,” I cried, shaken, “surely thou art quite mistaken!
There is sovereign wealth fund buying risky assets soon in store.
Banks will soon enough start lending, start consumers back off spending
Bring a swift and tidy ending to our all feeling quite poor.
Don’t you think that GDP growth soon enough will exceed four?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
Was he simply trying to scare me, overwhelm me, or just dare me
To get out of my positions I’d put on the year before?
Though they trade at distressed prices, my sangfroid is cold as ice, as
I have made it through the crisis marking them at eighty four.
“Don’t you think if I hang on I’ll find a bid at eighty-four?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
My portfolio’s diverse, moving on from bad to worse.
Managing a long-stock book had proven to be a chore.
As I glanced back at my screen I took on a pallid sheen
As the S&P careened below its key supportive floor.
“Will the Nikkei ever rally back towards where it was in ’94?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
Then, methought, the air grew denser, perfumed from an unseen censer
Swung by Seraphim whose foot-falls tinkled on the tufted floor.
“Wretch,” I cried, “Satan’s thy master, he hath sent me to disaster
Tell me, who hath fallen faster, me or hedge funds shuttering their doors,
Causing panic on the streets of London, Moscow, and Lahore?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
As the floor began to darken, a footstep I faintly hearkened,
Followed swiftly by another rapping beat against my office door.
In stepped an HR director, leering like Hannibal Lecter
‘Twas not my place to correct her as she told us what’s in store.
Then she escorted the trader by the elbow out and off the trading floor.
I saw him again- nevermore!
Late one morning one December in a year we’ll all remember,
Writing Christmas poems had turned into quite a chore,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of someone gently rapping, rapping at my office door.
“Tis some visitor,” I muttered, “tapping at my office door-
Only this, and nothing more.”
Open wide I flung the entry, stood there like an ancient sentry,
In there stepped a haggard trader who’d been up since half past four.
Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he;
But, with mien of lord or lady, walked in from the trading floor-
Stood next to a bust of Soros on a shelf well past the door-
Stood, and sighed, and nothing more.
Then this battered soul beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance he wore,
“Though thy P/L has cratered, you’ll get better soon or later,
Ghastly grim and somber trader wandering from the trading floor-
Tell me what thy problem is found upon the trading floor!”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
As he stood there slightly smirking, doubts I’d long felt vaguely lurking
My subconscience let emerge and push their way out to the fore.
“Though our P/L’s been stinking and our share price swiftly sinking
Surely I’m right to be thinking that the worst is in Q4?
When will we return to normal, back the way it was before?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
“Come now, fellow,” I cried, shaken, “surely thou art quite mistaken!
There is sovereign wealth fund buying risky assets soon in store.
Banks will soon enough start lending, start consumers back off spending
Bring a swift and tidy ending to our all feeling quite poor.
Don’t you think that GDP growth soon enough will exceed four?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
Was he simply trying to scare me, overwhelm me, or just dare me
To get out of my positions I’d put on the year before?
Though they trade at distressed prices, my sangfroid is cold as ice, as
I have made it through the crisis marking them at eighty four.
“Don’t you think if I hang on I’ll find a bid at eighty-four?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
My portfolio’s diverse, moving on from bad to worse.
Managing a long-stock book had proven to be a chore.
As I glanced back at my screen I took on a pallid sheen
As the S&P careened below its key supportive floor.
“Will the Nikkei ever rally back towards where it was in ’94?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
Then, methought, the air grew denser, perfumed from an unseen censer
Swung by Seraphim whose foot-falls tinkled on the tufted floor.
“Wretch,” I cried, “Satan’s thy master, he hath sent me to disaster
Tell me, who hath fallen faster, me or hedge funds shuttering their doors,
Causing panic on the streets of London, Moscow, and Lahore?”
Quoth the trader, “Nevermore.”
As the floor began to darken, a footstep I faintly hearkened,
Followed swiftly by another rapping beat against my office door.
In stepped an HR director, leering like Hannibal Lecter
‘Twas not my place to correct her as she told us what’s in store.
Then she escorted the trader by the elbow out and off the trading floor.
I saw him again- nevermore!
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Conservatism Revisited
There is a good debate starting on E!! about the social conservative and libertarian make-up of the Republican party. I'm on the periphery of both groups, so I thought I'd chime in. The original column, written by Randall Hoven, is at the American Conservative Union Foundation.
Let's start with the fact that philosophy is not my best subject. I've tried several books and they all have one thing in common; I've never made it past page 50. On the upside, if you ever need to have your mind numbed before bedtime, David Hume is excellent. The only pure philosophy book I've ever finished was an abridged version of "Wealth of Nations". Adam Smith is the only philosopher, on any subject, that made any sense.
I read "The Libertarian Manifesto" back in the '70's and came away thinking they were basically right, but a little bit nuts. Privatizing the police and fire departments, with toll roads everywhere, didn't seem very practical. So government does have a purpose. We can all pay taxes for what we all use. Then Ronald Reagan came along.I'll admit, in 1980 I thought he was a bit nuts too. (Beat the soviet empire? Get real.) Many of the people in his first term seemed excessively idealistic, some scarily so. But, by 1984 I could see that things were getting better. America was back.
But, What of all those followers, specifically the Christian Right. Quoting from Mr. Hoven's column:
This has been my experience also. The evidence of my experience is that Christians are the most temperamentally conservative people I know. The idea that they are secretly out to set up a Theocracy is laughable, but then the left has never been very good at scare tactics. There are far too many subsets of Christianity for the whole to agree on anything. Would it be a Baptist Theocracy, or a Methodist Theocracy? You can see the problem.
Another funny idea is that of the miserly, penny-pinching socialist. Mr. Hoven explains:
The fact is, Christianity is a big tent all by itself.
Let's start with the fact that philosophy is not my best subject. I've tried several books and they all have one thing in common; I've never made it past page 50. On the upside, if you ever need to have your mind numbed before bedtime, David Hume is excellent. The only pure philosophy book I've ever finished was an abridged version of "Wealth of Nations". Adam Smith is the only philosopher, on any subject, that made any sense.
I read "The Libertarian Manifesto" back in the '70's and came away thinking they were basically right, but a little bit nuts. Privatizing the police and fire departments, with toll roads everywhere, didn't seem very practical. So government does have a purpose. We can all pay taxes for what we all use. Then Ronald Reagan came along.I'll admit, in 1980 I thought he was a bit nuts too. (Beat the soviet empire? Get real.) Many of the people in his first term seemed excessively idealistic, some scarily so. But, by 1984 I could see that things were getting better. America was back.
But, What of all those followers, specifically the Christian Right. Quoting from Mr. Hoven's column:
...I have no problem with "social conservatives" or the "religious right" and their supposed influence on the Republican party. I base this not on the Bible or historical authority, but on the love of liberty and the evidence of my own eyes.
This has been my experience also. The evidence of my experience is that Christians are the most temperamentally conservative people I know. The idea that they are secretly out to set up a Theocracy is laughable, but then the left has never been very good at scare tactics. There are far too many subsets of Christianity for the whole to agree on anything. Would it be a Baptist Theocracy, or a Methodist Theocracy? You can see the problem.
Another funny idea is that of the miserly, penny-pinching socialist. Mr. Hoven explains:
I'm still searching for the mythical creature that is the "financially conservative, socially liberal" politician...Using the National Journal's ratings of Senators in 2007, the correlation coefficient between "economic" scores and "social" scores is 90%. That means they almost always go together; financial conservatives are social conservatives and vice versa.
The fact is, Christianity is a big tent all by itself.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Timing is Everything
At roughly the same time yesterday that I was reading The Independent Institute and pulling this:
President Bush was on CNN saying this:
So are we Mr. President, so are we. The good news here, is that Americans can stop coveting an Ivy League MBA degree.
If you are prepared to throw them (principles) out the window when times are tough, then you never really held them in the first place.
President Bush was on CNN saying this:
"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," ..."I am sorry we're having to do it,"
So are we Mr. President, so are we. The good news here, is that Americans can stop coveting an Ivy League MBA degree.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A Rising Star Sinks
Robert Higgs, writing for The Independent Institute has some interesting observations on the current bailout debate.
A rising star in the conservative ranks has been Republican congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan. His reaction to the no vote in the Senate last week:
A look at Congressman McCotter's money tree sheds some light on his rather liberal stance.
$94,850 in total. Not bad for a few phone calls and a little after hours shmoozing. All of which brings up another conservative truism: The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Everybody knows that the only way to find out who your true friends are is by noting who stands by you when you are down and out. Political principles work the same way. If you are prepared to throw them out the window when times are tough, then you never really held them in the first place. Principles are intended especially to guide our behavior in difficult circumstances. If they don’t do so, then our proclaimed principles stand revealed as having been nothing but rhetoric in the worst sense of the word.
A rising star in the conservative ranks has been Republican congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan. His reaction to the no vote in the Senate last week:
“With the legislative opportunities now exhausted, I urge the president of the United States to immediately release Wall Street TARP funds to the domestic automakers to avoid their impending bankruptcy and its consequent devastation of working families and the depression of our American economy.”
A look at Congressman McCotter's money tree sheds some light on his rather liberal stance.
Chrysler Service Contracts, Inc., Political Support Committee, $14,000; Dealers Election Action Committee of the National Automotive Dealers Association, $32,500; Ford Motor Company Action Fund, $22,100; General Motors Corp. Political Action Committee $26,250.
$94,850 in total. Not bad for a few phone calls and a little after hours shmoozing. All of which brings up another conservative truism: The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Cartoonist Logic
One thing I've always liked about the Dilbert Blog is that he often warns his readers "never get your financial advice from a cartoonist." However, sometimes you just can't beat his logic. His three pillars of finance:
For decades, a golden rule was to sell at a p/e ratio of 19. They rarely went over 20. It was one of the first rules I heard about when I started investing. Every old-timer I knew followed it. At the beginning of roaring '90's, with the dot-com's going through the roof, they went into the high 20's/low 30's. Before long, nobody talked about them anymore. Even the value stocks were over 20. I honestly don't know where they were this time last year, but there's an awful lot of them in single digits now.
1)History always repeats.
2)Past performance is no indication of future returns.
3)Asshats are trying to steal your money.
These three truisms can explain any financial phenomenon. For example, if your financial advisor suggests that you invest in a market bubble that is about to burst, he will explain that the past is no indication of future results. Just because a Price/Earnings ratio of 45 has never been sustainable in the past doesn't mean it won't be perfectly safe in the future.
And when the bubble bursts and you lose half of your money, your advisor will explain it's because history always repeats. In other words, he's an asshat trying to steal your money.
For decades, a golden rule was to sell at a p/e ratio of 19. They rarely went over 20. It was one of the first rules I heard about when I started investing. Every old-timer I knew followed it. At the beginning of roaring '90's, with the dot-com's going through the roof, they went into the high 20's/low 30's. Before long, nobody talked about them anymore. Even the value stocks were over 20. I honestly don't know where they were this time last year, but there's an awful lot of them in single digits now.
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